2004/11/11
Brief Overview of Three Tornadic Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS) events over the Mid-Mississippi Valley Region During the Spring 2002 Convective
Ron Przybylinski
NOAA/Weather Forecast Office
November 10, 2004
ABSTRACT
The Spring 2002 convective season was extremely active across the Mid-Mississippi Valley Region with three tornadic supercell events and five tornadic bowing convective line events. Nearly all of the tornadic cases evolved during the period from mid April through mid-May 2002. Twenty tornadoes were documented in the WFO St. Louis County Warning Area (CWA) during this period. Much of the tornadic damage was rated F1. In some areas, residents across southwest and south-central Illinois experienced severe storm activity twice within a one week period. Ground-based damage assessments were conducted for all of the tornadic events. This presentation will briefly compare the environmental and storm evolution of three of the five QLCS tornadic events. The first tornadic event in this presentation occurred during the very early morning of May 7, 2002 just north of the St. Louis Metro area. Two weak non-supercell tornadoes occurred near the intersection of a slow south-moving surface boundary and an eastward moving small bowing segment within a larger convective line. The first tornado occurred over extreme southeast Lincoln County Missouri while the second tornado occurred over far southern Calhoun County Illinois. A larger swath of damaging downburst winds was uncovered over east and southeast of the second tornado touchdown and reached northern St. Charles County Missouri. The mesovortex formed, then rapidly intensified and deepened near the intersection of the bowing segment and surface boundary. Characteristics of the mesovortex will be highlighted. A second bow echo tornadic event occurred during the early evening of 12 May 2002 over southeast Missouri. An isolated strong storm formed 30 km downshear of a developing bowing segment and laid a nearly east-west surface boundary. Small convective towers formed just upshear of the larger isolated cell and were anchored to the surface boundary. A mesovortex formed just north of the apex of a bowing segment and eventually interacted with the slow northward moving surface boundary. A weak tornado (F1) occurred approximately five minutes after the interaction of the surface boundary, bowing segment and mesovortex. The tornado caused damage from 5 km west of Desloge through the western part of the town. The third bow echo tornadic event occurred during the early morning of 9 May 2002 near Centralia Illinois in south-central Illinois about 145 km east of the KLSX WSR-88D Doppler radar. A non-supercell tornado caused extensive damage along a 1.5 km path. Two fatalities occurred in a mobile home park near the north side of Centralia. A small bow echo embedded within the larger convective line caused scattered wind damage across Clinton and Fayette counties northwest of Centralia. Timely severe thunderstorm warnings were issued for this reflectivity segment. However, the non-supercell tornado occurred along the leading edge of a broad bowing segment south of the smaller bow. Low-level storm-relative velocity data showed only the presence of a very weak mesovortex along the leading edge of the broad bowing segment as the tornado occurred. This case will be compared to the two preceding non-supercell tornadic events.
2004/11/02
[FW:ACM Tech News] "Data-Mining" on Shakespeare
California Computer News (10/27/04)
A multi-university collaboration between English literature and computer science researchers seeks to apply data mining technology to digital library collections. The effort spearheaded by the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign's Graduate School of Library and Information Science (GSLIS) has won almost $600,000 in funding from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation to develop a data-mining scheme that can find interesting new patterns in volumes on British and American literature. GSLIS dean John Unsworth says statistical analysis has often been used in literary study, but this is one of the earliest applications of data mining. The project builds on existing data-mining tools already developed by the University of Illinois' National Center for Supercomputing Applications, and will be applied to terabytes of humanities resources made available online. Unsworth says complex analysis of broad sets of works would yield interesting new discoveries and lead to better targeted literary research. The project team already tested their technology on the full set of Shakespeare plays, finding that "Othello" shared many characteristics with comedies, pointing a way to interesting academic study. Unsworth says the technology will prove even more useful when applied to larger sets of work. Collaborators on the Web-based Text Mining and Visualization for Humanities Digital Libraries project include English literature academics from the University of Georgia and the University of Maryland, plus computer science colleagues from the University of Virginia and other institutions.
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2004/10/28
Seminar2004-1027: Precipitation, the Rear Flank Downdraft, and Tornadoes
Mark Askelson
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
University of North Dakota
Wednesday, October 27, 2004
108 Atmospheric Sciences Building 3:30 p.m.
ABSTRACT
Given their infrequent occurrence, supercell thunderstorms produce an inordinate amount of death and damage. As a result, they have been studied intensely for the past forty years. Even so, numerous important questions concerning supercells remain. One such question regards tornadoes and observations of supercells that appear, excluding tornadic circulations, to be kinematically similar but exhibit very different tornadic behavior. Recently, analyses of data from the VORTEX project revealed that the thermodynamic properties of the rear flank downdraft (RFD) may dictate whether or not a supercell becomes tornadic. Since hydrometeors are thought to be an important driving force for the RFD, it has been postulated that they may be important to its thermodynamic properties and, possibly, to tornadogenesis.
Potential kinematic and thermodynamic properties of RFDs are investigated using a 1.5 dimension downdraft model that is driven by hydrometeor fields. This downdraft model uses conservation equations for vertical momentum, temperature, mixing ratios of water vapor and cloud water, number concentration densities of raindrops and graupel/hail, and ice-water fraction of graupel/hail. Microphysical processes include saturation adjustment, evaporation/condensation of raindrops, evaporation/condensation of melting graupel/hailstones, melting of graupel/hailstones, and shedding of melting graupel/hailstones. Environmental conditions are set using prescribed soundings that span a range of conditions to illustrate a range of simulated-RFD outcomes. The initial model state is hydrostatically balanced and subsequent evolution results only from hydrometeors, which are inserted with the same properties at the same altitude at each time step.
Results indicate that downdraft strength is strongly dependent on environmental lapse rates of temperature. Moreover, the vertical distribution of these lapse rates is a strong determinant of the maximum originating altitude of air parcels that descend to the surface. In addition to being sensitive to environmental conditions, modeled downdrafts are also sensitive to the properties of the hydrometeor fields that drive them. From these effects and the expected vertical temperature profiles of RFD environments, potential explanations of VORTEX observations will be provided. Finally, significant limitations of this study and future research directions will be discussed.
2004/10/21
Reflection on the seminar
Bill Ruddiman
Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia
2004/10/20
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這是個挺有趣的 seminar,談的也是現在氣候研究最 [熱門] 的問題(不論是經費或爭辯的激烈程度)。
科學家企圖在現實世界展現自己的影響力,大概已經不是什麼新聞了。在[走出象牙塔]的口號召喚之下,這些其實已經掌握相當權力與資源的人,再度勇猛的向更高的權力巔峰邁進。這其實沒什麼不好或是不對的地方,只是更凸顯了人們所共有的人性,不會因為教育或知識而改變。
Humanity, is something defaulted in our neural-structure, and is seldom changed through learning processes.
Dr. Ruddiman 從科學家轉變為歷史學家,調查了人類有史以來的農業活動與疾病傳播,結合使用[冰蕊]分析古氣候的研究資料,提出一套理論:自5000年前人類開始從事較大規模的農業活動以來,地球的氣候由原本的[走入小冰河期]已經被攔腰截住,溫室氣體的含量大幅提高,氣溫也未依照自然趨勢走入低溫。而歷史上造成人口銳減的大瘟疫,每每與冰蕊資料裡溫室氣體含量下降的時間相吻合,戰爭亦然。當然,走進工業時代之後,人類大量使用石化燃料,這個趨勢也就越演越烈,似乎已經無法回頭。
然而,讓人口[大幅]減少,自然界才會回到平衡,這個命題我國一就知道了,何需如此大費周章的研究半天?難不成是要請美國政府發動核子戰爭嗎?
顯然,這個問題不是短時間內有辦法解決的,就當成是美國的律師一樣,找件事情借題發揮,便足以提高知名度,並且撈到一些好處吧........
UPDATE ON THE HYPOTHESIS OF EARLY ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECTS ON CLIMATE
Bill Ruddiman
Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia
2004/10/20
ABSTRACT
I recently proposed that farming has altered greenhouse-gas levels in the atmosphere for thousands of years. Clearance of forests for early agriculture raised atmospheric CO2 levels, and irrigation for rice farming increased methane levels. I also proposed that these early gas emissions were large enough to cancel most of a natural cooling that would otherwise have occurred and to stop the early stages of a glaciation. The early part of marine isotopic stage 11 near 400,000 years ago provides the closest analog to recent solar radiation levels of any interglaciation in the last million years. At the time that was most similar to the last few millennia, the CH4 concentration measured in Vostok ice fell to ~450 ppb, and CO2 values to ~250 ppm. These natural decreases contrast with the large increases (methane to 700 ppb and CO2 to 280 ppm) during pre-industrial time, thus providing strong support for the early anthropogenic hypothesis. In addition, deuterium (hydrogen-isotope) values in Vostok ice fell from typical interglacial to nearly glacial values, indicating that a major cooling occurred in Antarctica, as postulated in the hypothesis. Other evidence from both ice-core and marine-sediment sources suggests that new ice was accumulating in the northern hemisphere during the closest insolation analog to the present day, supporting the hypothesis that a glaciation is now overdue.
2004/10/07
Not too much to talk about
既然熱帶地區的 biomass 無法精確測量(測量誤差大於估計的變化量),也就沒什麼好說的。
有趣的是,剛從Paris開完會回來的 Dr. Slasinger,說會議理有人提到,藉由提供發展中國家廉價的新能源,減緩熱帶地區的 deforesting,有機會讓CO2濃度回到工業時代以前的水準;然而從化學系來聽的,從事新能源研究的學生說,其實應該沒有這麼樂觀,因為採用新能源,要產生跟石化燃料等量的效率,恐怕造成的污染不會比較少(可能產生更多的廢熱)。
果然是誰也不知道答案的debate,永遠有你沒考慮到的變數........
不過,學界目前正積極的建立機制,將研究的成果能立即的反映在相關政策的制定上,不知道會不會因此發生一些慘劇?
2004/10/06
What Should We Know About Forest Biomass to Better Understand the Global Carbon Balance?
Richard.A. Houghton
Woods Hole Research Center
Woods Hole, MA
Wednesday October 6, 2004
109 Atmospheric Sciences Bldg 3:30 p.m.
ABSTRACT
The net annual flux of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere is dominated by two factors: changes in the area of forests and per hectare changes in forest biomass that result from management and regrowth. While these factors are reasonably well documented in countries of the northern mid-latitudes as a result of systematic forest inventories, they are uncertain in the tropics. Recent estimates of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation have focused on the uncertainty in rates of deforestation. By using the same data for biomass, however, these studies have underestimated the total uncertainty of tropical emissions and may have biased the estimates. In particular, regional and country-specific estimates of forest biomass reported by the FAO indicate systematic changes in biomass that have not been taken into account in recent estimates of tropical carbon emissions. The ‘changes’ more likely represent improved information than real on-the-ground changes in carbon storage. In either case, however, the data have a significant effect on current estimates of carbon emissions from the tropics and, hence, on understanding the global carbon balance.
2004/09/30
Reflection on today's seminar
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY FOR A GREENHOUSE GAS CONSTRAINED FUTURE
演講者,Haroon S. Kheshgi 是 ExxonMobil Research & Engineering Company 的研究員,主要的工作是分析新能源的使用對氣候變遷的影響。研究中分析了過去的能源使用與溫室氣體的測量數據,以及未來使用新能源、新技術到底可以改善多少溫室效應,提供業界作為將來投資的參考。
基本上,這是相當有實用價值的研究,然而結果卻不是很樂觀:目前溫室氣體的最大排放源並不在美國,所以美國再怎麼改善效果也是有限。
或許是結果並不符合「科學家」們的道德期待,也或許是因為工學院的 approach 不同,現場砲聲隆隆。有人問說:「為什麼要用 IEA (International Engineering Agency)的資料而不用 IPCC的?這樣的資料可靠嗎?」
也許吧,工學院跟你用不一樣的資料就不可靠,真是具有執著的科學精神。
當然,MIT剛做出來的生化太陽能發電(菠菜電池)離可以量產還有很遙遠的路,不可能在已經完成的評估報告裡,所以報告裡頭對太陽能發電效率 2% 的估計,也被評為跟不上最新的研究。
最後,我覺得唯一有道理的問題,是「這類的評估報告對於產業決策的實質影響是什麼?能否列舉這十年來的一兩個例子?」答案是:舉不出例子,"I am just a researcher, not the decision maker"。
所以,科學家,到底在做什麼呢?
2004/09/29
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY FOR A GREENHOUSE GAS CONSTRAINED FUTURE
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY FOR A GREENHOUSE GAS CONSTRAINED FUTURE
Haroon S. Kheshgi
Corporate Strategic Research, ExxonMobil
Research & Engineering Company, USA
Wednesday, September 29, 2004
ABSTRACT
What technologies will be necessary to satisfy both people's demand for affordable energy, and mitigate the risk of climate change? Energy demand is forecast to double within the next half century, even with improvements in energy efficiency at historic rates. It may be found that the risk of climate change justifies, over the same time, the reduction of net CO2 emissions worldwide to a fraction of current levels. In a recent review (Hoffert et al., 2002), we survey the status of emission-free energy technologies that could be deployed globally to provide the massive energy demand of the future. Possible candidates for primary energy sources include terrestrial solar and wind energy, solar power satellites, biomass, nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, fission-fusion hybrids, and fossil fuels from which carbon has been sequestered. Non-primary power technologies that could contribute include efficiency improvements, hydrogen production, storage and transport, superconducting global electric grids, and geoengineering. All of these approaches currently have severe deficiencies that limit their readiness for global deployment. A broad range of intensive research and development is needed in the near-term to produce technological options that could, in the long-term, both address the risk of climate change and provide affordable energy for economic development. Yet over the past decades, funding for energy R&D has declined worldwide.
The development of low-emission energy technology is only one component of an overall response to climate change. Research to assess the risk of climate change and to better plan society's response remains a critical pursuit. Some near-term reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases can be accomplished economically through many actions including improvements in efficiency, fuel switching, protection of forests and agricultural soils, and addressing emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and soot that might also be a strong warming agent. With growing markets come ever more opportunities for global deployment of existing and new efficient technologies that address one priority of the developing world. Significant improvements in energy technologies are an essential component of future world development and an essential component of society's response to climate change and should be encouraged. Through innovative improvements in energy technology, there is reason for optimism, but only if effective efforts to improve energy technology get underway.
2004/09/25
Beauty and Body Image in the Media
"We don’t need Afghan-style burquas to disappear as women. We disappear in reverse—by revamping and revealing our bodies to meet externally imposed visions of female beauty."
Robin Gerber
2004/09/21
Journal of Mathematical Fluid Mechanics
Publisher: Birkhäuser Verlag AG
ISSN: 1422-6928 (Paper) 1422-6952 (Online)
Subject: Engineering , Mathematics , Physics and Astronomy